Doomsday Argument

Does the Name Speak for all its Spookiness???

Image result for end of the world

*The notes of a dirge playing on the background*

“We are back with fresh, intimidating news… The end of the world is coming soon… Very soon…”

This is a demonstration of what FOX 47 news would say on December 11th, 2012. Just kidding. We’re all going to live for a significant amount of time… until the real day comes…

Anyhow, no need to be aware of it because we would be inhabitants of this fellow planet Earth, at least, for the next couple of hundreds of years (despite global pollution). *Elon Musk rams in*

Image result for elon musk mars images

Oh and the new ‘Space-idol’ – Alyssa Carson ’17…

Image result for first girl to go to mars

Now, let us get straight to the content!

the meaning sounds too fishy to be true

The Doomsday argument is an argument, purely from Probability theory [might make a new post on that] , that purports to show that humanity will probably go extinct sometime within the roughly foreseeable future, possibly less than one thousand years. It is extremely controversial, both in professional and lay circles.

Image result for thousand years earth hd

No, not Alien Invasion or Star Wars missiles flying all around the place

Or, to be more precise, as states:

The Copernican Principle asserts that humans are not special, that we should expect to find ourselves in an ordinary place or position. But if humanity continues for billions of years, we today would find ourselves extraordinarily early in human history. Therefore, the Doomsday Argument predicts that the human species will not continue for very much longer.

well, from where could such a thought invade?

The argument has its roots in the German tank problem, which was the attempt by the Allies during World War II to determine how many tanks Germany was producing purely by examining the serial numbers of the tanks that they were able to observe.

Image result for world war 2 german tanks

While it’s of course impossible to determine such a number with complete accuracy, if you get four tanks and they all have numbers under twenty, there probably aren’t more than twenty of them; and similarly if the numbers have five digits apiece, there are probably tens of thousands of them. Thus we can make a rough guess as to how many there are.

Image result for german tank study

This ignores the fact that you can fake serial numbers, which was a problem for the German tank study but isn’t one for the Doomsday argument.


Let’s talk math now

If we have just one such number, we can make a very rough guess that the number we have is probably about half of the total.

Image result for a lot of tanks

If we’re looking at tank number twelve, there are probably not 600,000 tanks. Statistically, if there were that many, we would get something with six digits.

The Doomsday argument applies this to the human race.

Image result for humanity image hd

In the entire history of our species, there have been about 100,000,000,000 (one hundred billion) humans so far. If the human race were to continue to survive for thousands of years hence, and maintained the current increase in reproduction, the total number of humans would be far greater; on the order of the high trillions or even the quadrillions. This would mean that we are observing humanity in its infancy, which is statistically unlikely.

The argument therefore concludes that we’re in the “middle” of the human timeline and, extrapolating from current population growth, that timeline will end roughly within the next thousand years.

Related imagePerhaps, the Red one

and that’s the end!

Thanks for reading this article and if you ever have any suggestions or comments, feel free to leave them below! But for now, see you in the near future!

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Written by Shohruh Artaman
A typical writer illustrating typical principles
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